The
world will have to face the increasingly tense situation in the volatile Middle
East. In
recent days, Iran's escalation of confrontation with the United States, outside
the 2012 Gulf war again the conjecture is growing. Severe
abnormalities face of the U.S. introduction of the oil sanctions, Iran willing
to reveal their "trump card", threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in
retaliation, and the United States said that the Iranian blockade of the Straits
would be "intolerable" approach, the United States will never allow that
to happen.
Called the "Middle East oil tank valve" in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's energy supply routes, from here to the world more than 80% of crude oil exports to Asia, including Iran's main crude oil export market - China. Petroleum experts on the "News of the World," pointed out that the narrow Gulf Once blocked, the international oil prices will inevitably rise, China's economic development will bring rising costs and a series of serious consequences.
U.S. sanctions hit Iran pain
December 31, 2011, US-Iraqi relations in the suppression of the confrontation complete with New Year's Eve.
Day vacation in Hawaii, U.S. President Barack Obama signed a $ 662 billion defense budget bill, one of which is new measures against Iran: Central Bank of Iran for those who have dealings with financial institutions to impose sanctions, financial institutions subject to sanctions in the U.S. financial markets are frozen. Reuters reported that Tehran, as Iran's central bank is responsible for the vast majority of oil export trade, if the strict implementation of the sanctions, then, most of the refinery will be impossible to buy crude oil from Iran, "This is tantamount to hit Iran it hurts. "
External noted that this bill seems harsh reality aside buffer to Iran. For example, the bill emphasized that to avoid the volatility of international crude oil market prices soaring and the importance of Iran's central bank in connection with business dealings or other central banks will be given two to six month warning period. Bill also provides that if the President considers relevant sanctions detrimental to U.S. national security initiatives, can give notice to Congress after the implementation of these sanctions.
Earlier, Iran has warned that if oil exports suffer sanctions "will have very serious consequences," Iran will blockade the Strait of Hormuz as a revenge to the West, "let a drop of oil through the Strait." To demonstrate the determination of Iran from December 24 onwards, in the Strait of Hormuz at the 10-day code-named "guard 90" military exercise at sea. Exercise area from east of the Strait of Hormuz, across the Sea of Oman, the north Indian Ocean waters east and west to the Gulf of Aden, covering about 2,000 square kilometers of sea, setting a record of the size of the Iranian naval exercises.
However, the strong smell of gunpowder appears to the Strait of Hormuz, there are not any movement. It is reported that the Iranian Navy had planned for December 31, long-range missile test, but the deputy commander Mohammad Moussavi, the Iranian Navy was revealed to the media the day, missile tests will be rescheduled within the next few days. On the same day, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said that Iran has five permanent Security Council members and Germany issued a formal invitation to call to restart talks on the issue. The U.S. aircraft carrier before disturbing "into" waters of the Iranian military exercise events, but also to scare ended.
Iran will not self-proclaimed "Gate of Life"
Although the situation in the Middle East is still suffering a small fire, but the international community did not relax the nerve. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei on December 29 at a regular press conference to answer questions expressed the hope that the Strait of Hormuz region to maintain peace and stability. December 28 to 29, Chinese Foreign Ministry, Deputy Foreign Minister Zhai Jun to go to Iran for routine political consultations. Reuters, analysts say, the Chinese Foreign Ministry in response to an unusual moment that China's commercial relations with Iran sensitivity.
Strait of Hormuz is located between the southern Arabian Peninsula and Iran, its narrowest point is only 48.3 km, is an important oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia's offshore oil output will pass through, is also seen as western economies "strategic throat." . According to statistics, nearly 40 percent of the world's oil and natural gas, which exports a significant number of the world, transported here by 2011, around the world every day of crude oil reached 170 million barrels, of which more than 80% to Asia.
Iranian Navy Commander saya where had said earlier that Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz oil route "than a cup of water is also easy." However, the International Institute for Strategic Studies at the Central Party School Professor Xiao-Jun Ma appear to be unlikely. He told "World News" interview, said: "Technically speaking, Iran is incapable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and moreover, Iran blocked the Straits, the biggest victim is ourselves."
Some analysts pointed out that Iran does not reorganize the fleet blocked the ability of the Strait of Hormuz, because of its smaller tonnage ships can not co-formation in the open water to stay a few days. However, if Iran really want to cause trouble, it touches you can use the missile or torpedo attack oil tankers and Western warships, or small boats made suicide attacks. But Iran is not really easy to start, because the U.S. Fifth Fleet stationed in Bahrain in the vicinity. "The United States is bound to spare no effort to defend the security of the Gulf state oil out of the last few days, the U.S. stepped up arms sales to Gulf countries, is an example." Xiao-Jun Ma said.
Xiao-Jun Ma told reporters that the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's largest customers themselves. Oil is the Gate of the Iranian economy, at present, Iran is the EU's fifth largest crude oil supplier, but also China, Japan, Korea and other Asian countries, the main crude oil exporter. Once Iran is actually blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's oil exports would first road blocked.
"Strait crisis" big threat to China
Xiao-Jun Ma believes that even if Iran can not blockade the Strait of Hormuz, but once the real fight is bound to have a tremendous impact on the international oil market. In fact, from October 2011, with the tight situation in Iran, international oil prices have to rise again, was about $ 100 a barrel level. Western countries decided in November to launch a new round of sanctions against Iran, leading to international crude oil prices from $ 75.67 / barrel shock all the way up.
Professor Xu Bin, China University of Petroleum told "World News" reporter, according to data released by the relevant institutions, once the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices soared to more than $ 200 a barrel is completely the possibility exists. Currently, Europe is struggling with the debt crisis, the United States the decline in the economic cycle run, China's economic situation in 2012 is equally bleak, if Middle East oil is cut off, the global economy will no doubt face worse threats.
China Radio International commentator Leisi Hai that, regardless of whether Iran will go to block the Strait of Hormuz, as long as the area to keep the "wild and not war" situation, the psychological expectations of the market will push up oil prices to high. And if oil prices surge on China's economy will be immediately apparent. At present, China, 70% or even 80% of the oil must be imported from abroad, the situation in Iran will affect the entire world oil prices. The current crude oil price of 90 dollars / barrel, for example, if oil prices rose to $ 150 / barrel, the cost of industrial raw materials in China will be doubled.
Leisi Hai believes that China is currently working on the inflation rate down to 4%, if the world oil price rise, China is likely to increase the pressure of imported inflation. As a result, China's economic and monetary policy will also increase the difficulty.
China urgently needs to increase the strategic oil reserves
Market analysts believe that, in view of industrial production growth and higher car ownership, China's oil demand in 2012 will maintain steady growth. As China's third largest crude oil supplier to Iran, China to maintain stable supply of crude oil on the importance of self-evident. Data show that China has replaced the European Union to become Iran's largest oil trading partner. As of the first six months of 2011, the Iranian daily delivery of 54 million barrels of oil to China more than China's total daily oil imports 10%. Nearly 50 percent of China's oil imports to go through the Strait of Hormuz.
The face of potential geopolitical risks, outside analysts believe that China urgently needs to increase the strategic oil reserves to enhance the anti-"trauma" capability. British "Financial Times" last November, a report said China's strategic oil reserve plan the target is 500 million barrels, roughly equivalent to 100 days' supply. But so far, slightly more than 1.1 billion barrels of oil reserves in China, just enough to maintain a month's supply. China should continue to promote the strategic reserve bases, and timely purchase of oil, equivalent to 90 days and gradually reached the level of net imports of oil.
Said Xu Bin, China to expand oil reserves is necessary "self-defense", but also in the international energy market, China to enhance strategic tool for the right to speak. Currently, the U.S. has oil reserves as a pricing mechanism for oil, oil prices will be released when the reserves, in order to achieve the purpose of stabilizing oil prices. International Energy Agency (IEA) has released the mechanism of oil reserves. IEA requires each Member State with 90 days of reserves in oil producing countries, pushing up oil prices when the consumer on the release of certain reserves to stabilize oil prices. "Joining the IEA member countries can also enjoy the linkage mechanism, that is, once oil supply stagnated, members will be able to share each other's reserves of crude oil."
Called the "Middle East oil tank valve" in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's energy supply routes, from here to the world more than 80% of crude oil exports to Asia, including Iran's main crude oil export market - China. Petroleum experts on the "News of the World," pointed out that the narrow Gulf Once blocked, the international oil prices will inevitably rise, China's economic development will bring rising costs and a series of serious consequences.
U.S. sanctions hit Iran pain
December 31, 2011, US-Iraqi relations in the suppression of the confrontation complete with New Year's Eve.
Day vacation in Hawaii, U.S. President Barack Obama signed a $ 662 billion defense budget bill, one of which is new measures against Iran: Central Bank of Iran for those who have dealings with financial institutions to impose sanctions, financial institutions subject to sanctions in the U.S. financial markets are frozen. Reuters reported that Tehran, as Iran's central bank is responsible for the vast majority of oil export trade, if the strict implementation of the sanctions, then, most of the refinery will be impossible to buy crude oil from Iran, "This is tantamount to hit Iran it hurts. "
External noted that this bill seems harsh reality aside buffer to Iran. For example, the bill emphasized that to avoid the volatility of international crude oil market prices soaring and the importance of Iran's central bank in connection with business dealings or other central banks will be given two to six month warning period. Bill also provides that if the President considers relevant sanctions detrimental to U.S. national security initiatives, can give notice to Congress after the implementation of these sanctions.
Earlier, Iran has warned that if oil exports suffer sanctions "will have very serious consequences," Iran will blockade the Strait of Hormuz as a revenge to the West, "let a drop of oil through the Strait." To demonstrate the determination of Iran from December 24 onwards, in the Strait of Hormuz at the 10-day code-named "guard 90" military exercise at sea. Exercise area from east of the Strait of Hormuz, across the Sea of Oman, the north Indian Ocean waters east and west to the Gulf of Aden, covering about 2,000 square kilometers of sea, setting a record of the size of the Iranian naval exercises.
However, the strong smell of gunpowder appears to the Strait of Hormuz, there are not any movement. It is reported that the Iranian Navy had planned for December 31, long-range missile test, but the deputy commander Mohammad Moussavi, the Iranian Navy was revealed to the media the day, missile tests will be rescheduled within the next few days. On the same day, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said that Iran has five permanent Security Council members and Germany issued a formal invitation to call to restart talks on the issue. The U.S. aircraft carrier before disturbing "into" waters of the Iranian military exercise events, but also to scare ended.
Iran will not self-proclaimed "Gate of Life"
Although the situation in the Middle East is still suffering a small fire, but the international community did not relax the nerve. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei on December 29 at a regular press conference to answer questions expressed the hope that the Strait of Hormuz region to maintain peace and stability. December 28 to 29, Chinese Foreign Ministry, Deputy Foreign Minister Zhai Jun to go to Iran for routine political consultations. Reuters, analysts say, the Chinese Foreign Ministry in response to an unusual moment that China's commercial relations with Iran sensitivity.
Strait of Hormuz is located between the southern Arabian Peninsula and Iran, its narrowest point is only 48.3 km, is an important oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia's offshore oil output will pass through, is also seen as western economies "strategic throat." . According to statistics, nearly 40 percent of the world's oil and natural gas, which exports a significant number of the world, transported here by 2011, around the world every day of crude oil reached 170 million barrels, of which more than 80% to Asia.
Iranian Navy Commander saya where had said earlier that Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz oil route "than a cup of water is also easy." However, the International Institute for Strategic Studies at the Central Party School Professor Xiao-Jun Ma appear to be unlikely. He told "World News" interview, said: "Technically speaking, Iran is incapable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and moreover, Iran blocked the Straits, the biggest victim is ourselves."
Some analysts pointed out that Iran does not reorganize the fleet blocked the ability of the Strait of Hormuz, because of its smaller tonnage ships can not co-formation in the open water to stay a few days. However, if Iran really want to cause trouble, it touches you can use the missile or torpedo attack oil tankers and Western warships, or small boats made suicide attacks. But Iran is not really easy to start, because the U.S. Fifth Fleet stationed in Bahrain in the vicinity. "The United States is bound to spare no effort to defend the security of the Gulf state oil out of the last few days, the U.S. stepped up arms sales to Gulf countries, is an example." Xiao-Jun Ma said.
Xiao-Jun Ma told reporters that the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's largest customers themselves. Oil is the Gate of the Iranian economy, at present, Iran is the EU's fifth largest crude oil supplier, but also China, Japan, Korea and other Asian countries, the main crude oil exporter. Once Iran is actually blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's oil exports would first road blocked.
"Strait crisis" big threat to China
Xiao-Jun Ma believes that even if Iran can not blockade the Strait of Hormuz, but once the real fight is bound to have a tremendous impact on the international oil market. In fact, from October 2011, with the tight situation in Iran, international oil prices have to rise again, was about $ 100 a barrel level. Western countries decided in November to launch a new round of sanctions against Iran, leading to international crude oil prices from $ 75.67 / barrel shock all the way up.
Professor Xu Bin, China University of Petroleum told "World News" reporter, according to data released by the relevant institutions, once the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices soared to more than $ 200 a barrel is completely the possibility exists. Currently, Europe is struggling with the debt crisis, the United States the decline in the economic cycle run, China's economic situation in 2012 is equally bleak, if Middle East oil is cut off, the global economy will no doubt face worse threats.
China Radio International commentator Leisi Hai that, regardless of whether Iran will go to block the Strait of Hormuz, as long as the area to keep the "wild and not war" situation, the psychological expectations of the market will push up oil prices to high. And if oil prices surge on China's economy will be immediately apparent. At present, China, 70% or even 80% of the oil must be imported from abroad, the situation in Iran will affect the entire world oil prices. The current crude oil price of 90 dollars / barrel, for example, if oil prices rose to $ 150 / barrel, the cost of industrial raw materials in China will be doubled.
Leisi Hai believes that China is currently working on the inflation rate down to 4%, if the world oil price rise, China is likely to increase the pressure of imported inflation. As a result, China's economic and monetary policy will also increase the difficulty.
China urgently needs to increase the strategic oil reserves
Market analysts believe that, in view of industrial production growth and higher car ownership, China's oil demand in 2012 will maintain steady growth. As China's third largest crude oil supplier to Iran, China to maintain stable supply of crude oil on the importance of self-evident. Data show that China has replaced the European Union to become Iran's largest oil trading partner. As of the first six months of 2011, the Iranian daily delivery of 54 million barrels of oil to China more than China's total daily oil imports 10%. Nearly 50 percent of China's oil imports to go through the Strait of Hormuz.
The face of potential geopolitical risks, outside analysts believe that China urgently needs to increase the strategic oil reserves to enhance the anti-"trauma" capability. British "Financial Times" last November, a report said China's strategic oil reserve plan the target is 500 million barrels, roughly equivalent to 100 days' supply. But so far, slightly more than 1.1 billion barrels of oil reserves in China, just enough to maintain a month's supply. China should continue to promote the strategic reserve bases, and timely purchase of oil, equivalent to 90 days and gradually reached the level of net imports of oil.
Said Xu Bin, China to expand oil reserves is necessary "self-defense", but also in the international energy market, China to enhance strategic tool for the right to speak. Currently, the U.S. has oil reserves as a pricing mechanism for oil, oil prices will be released when the reserves, in order to achieve the purpose of stabilizing oil prices. International Energy Agency (IEA) has released the mechanism of oil reserves. IEA requires each Member State with 90 days of reserves in oil producing countries, pushing up oil prices when the consumer on the release of certain reserves to stabilize oil prices. "Joining the IEA member countries can also enjoy the linkage mechanism, that is, once oil supply stagnated, members will be able to share each other's reserves of crude oil."
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