The
world will have to face the increasingly tense situation in the volatile Middle
East. In
recent days, Iran's escalation of confrontation with the United States, outside
the 2012 Gulf war again the conjecture is growing. Severe
abnormalities face of the U.S. introduction of the oil sanctions, Iran willing
to reveal their "trump card", threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in
retaliation, and the United States said that the Iranian blockade of the Straits
would be "intolerable" approach, the United States will never allow that
to happen.
Called
the "Middle East oil tank valve" in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's energy
supply routes, from here to the world more than 80% of crude oil exports to
Asia, including Iran's main crude oil export market - China. Petroleum
experts on the "News of the World," pointed out that the narrow Gulf Once
blocked, the international oil prices will inevitably rise, China's economic
development will bring rising costs and a series of serious
consequences.
U.S. sanctions hit Iran
pain
December
31, 2011, US-Iraqi relations in the suppression of the confrontation complete
with New Year's Eve.
Day
vacation in Hawaii, U.S. President Barack Obama signed a $ 662 billion defense
budget bill, one of which is new measures against Iran: Central Bank of Iran for
those who have dealings with financial institutions to impose sanctions,
financial institutions subject to sanctions in the U.S.
financial markets are frozen. Reuters
reported that Tehran, as Iran's central bank is responsible for the vast
majority of oil export trade, if the strict implementation of the sanctions,
then, most of the refinery will be impossible to buy crude oil from Iran, "This
is tantamount to hit Iran it hurts. "
External
noted that this bill seems harsh reality aside buffer to Iran. For
example, the bill emphasized that to avoid the volatility of international crude
oil market prices soaring and the importance of Iran's central bank in
connection with business dealings or other central banks will be given two to
six month warning period. Bill
also provides that if the President considers relevant sanctions detrimental to
U.S. national security initiatives, can give notice to Congress after the
implementation of these sanctions.
Earlier,
Iran has warned that if oil exports suffer sanctions "will have very serious
consequences," Iran will blockade the Strait of Hormuz as a revenge to the West,
"let a drop of oil through the Strait." To
demonstrate the determination of Iran from December 24 onwards, in the Strait of
Hormuz at the 10-day code-named "guard 90" military exercise at sea.
Exercise
area from east of the Strait of Hormuz, across the Sea of Oman, the north
Indian Ocean waters east and west to the Gulf of Aden, covering about 2,000
square kilometers of sea, setting a record of the size of the Iranian naval
exercises.
However,
the strong smell of gunpowder appears to the Strait of Hormuz, there are not any
movement. It
is reported that the Iranian Navy had planned for December 31, long-range
missile test, but the deputy commander Mohammad Moussavi, the Iranian Navy was
revealed to the media the day, missile tests will be rescheduled within the next
few days. On
the same day, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said that Iran has
five permanent Security Council members and Germany issued a formal invitation
to call to restart talks on the issue. The
U.S. aircraft carrier before disturbing "into" waters of the Iranian military
exercise events, but also to scare ended.
Iran will
not self-proclaimed "Gate of Life"
Although
the situation in the Middle East is still suffering a small fire, but the
international community did not relax the nerve. Chinese
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei on December 29 at a regular press conference
to answer questions expressed the hope that the Strait of Hormuz region to
maintain peace and stability. December
28 to 29, Chinese Foreign Ministry, Deputy Foreign Minister Zhai Jun to go to
Iran for routine political consultations. Reuters,
analysts say, the Chinese Foreign Ministry in response to an unusual moment that
China's commercial relations with Iran sensitivity.
Strait
of Hormuz is located between the southern Arabian Peninsula and Iran, its
narrowest point is only 48.3 km, is an important oil-producing countries such as
Saudi Arabia's offshore oil output will pass through, is also seen as western
economies "strategic throat." . According
to statistics, nearly 40 percent of the world's oil and natural gas, which
exports a significant number of the world, transported here by 2011, around the
world every day of crude oil reached 170 million barrels, of which more than 80%
to Asia.
Iranian
Navy Commander saya where had said earlier that Iran blocked the Strait of
Hormuz oil route "than a cup of water is also easy." However,
the International Institute for Strategic Studies at the Central Party School
Professor Xiao-Jun Ma appear to be unlikely. He
told "World News" interview, said: "Technically speaking, Iran is incapable of
blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and moreover, Iran blocked the Straits, the
biggest victim is ourselves."
Some
analysts pointed out that Iran does not reorganize the fleet blocked the ability
of the Strait of Hormuz, because of its smaller tonnage ships can not
co-formation in the open water to stay a few days. However,
if Iran really want to cause trouble, it touches you can use the missile or
torpedo attack oil tankers and Western warships, or small boats made suicide
attacks. But
Iran is not really easy to start, because the U.S. Fifth Fleet stationed in
Bahrain in the vicinity. "The
United States is bound to spare no effort to defend the security of the Gulf
state oil out of the last few days, the U.S. stepped up arms sales to Gulf
countries, is an example." Xiao-Jun Ma said.
Xiao-Jun
Ma told reporters that the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's largest customers
themselves. Oil
is the Gate of the Iranian economy, at present, Iran is the EU's fifth largest
crude oil supplier, but also China, Japan, Korea and other Asian countries, the
main crude oil exporter. Once
Iran is actually blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's oil exports would first
road blocked.
"Strait crisis" big
threat to China
Xiao-Jun
Ma believes that even if Iran can not blockade the Strait of Hormuz, but once
the real fight is bound to have a tremendous impact on the international oil
market. In
fact, from October 2011, with the tight situation in Iran, international oil
prices have to rise again, was about $ 100 a barrel level. Western
countries decided in November to launch a new round of sanctions against Iran,
leading to international crude oil prices from $ 75.67 / barrel shock all the
way up.
Professor
Xu Bin, China University of Petroleum told "World News" reporter, according to
data released by the relevant institutions, once the Strait of Hormuz is
blocked, oil prices soared to more than $ 200 a barrel is completely the
possibility exists. Currently,
Europe is struggling with the debt crisis, the United States the decline in the
economic cycle run, China's economic situation in 2012 is equally bleak, if
Middle East oil is cut off, the global economy will no doubt face worse
threats.
China
Radio International commentator Leisi Hai that, regardless of whether Iran will
go to block the Strait of Hormuz, as long as the area to keep the "wild and not
war" situation, the psychological expectations of the market will push up oil
prices to high. And
if oil prices surge on China's economy will be immediately apparent.
At
present, China, 70% or even 80% of the oil must be imported from abroad, the
situation in Iran will affect the entire world oil prices. The
current crude oil price of 90 dollars / barrel, for example, if oil prices rose
to $ 150 / barrel, the cost of industrial raw materials in China will be
doubled.
Leisi
Hai believes that China is currently working on the inflation rate down to 4%,
if the world oil price rise, China is likely to increase the pressure of
imported inflation. As
a result, China's economic and monetary policy will also increase the
difficulty.
China
urgently needs to increase the strategic oil reserves
Market
analysts believe that, in view of industrial production growth and higher car
ownership, China's oil demand in 2012 will maintain steady growth. As
China's third largest crude oil supplier to Iran, China to maintain stable
supply of crude oil on the importance of self-evident. Data
show that China has replaced the European Union to become Iran's largest oil
trading partner. As
of the first six months of 2011, the Iranian daily delivery of 54 million
barrels of oil to China more than China's total daily oil imports 10%.
Nearly
50 percent of China's oil imports to go through the Strait of
Hormuz.
The
face of potential geopolitical risks, outside analysts believe that China
urgently needs to increase the strategic oil reserves to enhance the
anti-"trauma" capability. British
"Financial Times" last November, a report said China's strategic oil reserve
plan the target is 500 million barrels, roughly equivalent to 100 days' supply.
But
so far, slightly more than 1.1 billion barrels of oil reserves in China, just
enough to maintain a month's supply. China
should continue to promote the strategic reserve bases, and timely purchase of
oil, equivalent to 90 days and gradually reached the level of net imports of
oil.
Said
Xu Bin, China to expand oil reserves is necessary "self-defense", but also in
the international energy market, China to enhance strategic tool for the right
to speak. Currently,
the U.S. has oil reserves as a pricing mechanism for oil, oil prices will be
released when the reserves, in order to achieve the purpose of stabilizing oil
prices. International
Energy Agency (IEA) has released the mechanism of oil reserves. IEA
requires each Member State with 90 days of reserves in oil producing countries,
pushing up oil prices when the consumer on the release of certain reserves to
stabilize oil prices. "Joining
the IEA member countries can also enjoy the linkage mechanism, that is, once oil
supply stagnated, members will be able to share each other's reserves of crude
oil."